Knicks-Heat, Warriors-Lakers Game 4 best bets + NBA Conference Finals MVP prices | Bet the Edge

all right welcome to bet the edge I'mJay Croucher here with Drew dinsic Drewback from the state of Kentucky with hishat now not being worn and uh I am backin the state of uh Eco I'm back in thestate of Connecticut but uh my heart'sin the State of Florida south Floridaafter the uh the Florida Panthers keepon rolling and uh so do the Miami Heatwe'll talk about the Heat NBA theme showtoday let's start about let's start withthe Derby Drew how was uh how was theday and how did you make out uh it'll godown as one of my most uh in happymemories as being involved with sportsof any kind being there in person to seethe Derby was magical uh bucket listkind of experience and then uh got tomeet and spend some time with some coolcool people uh I won't uh name drop butuh some some CH some childhood Legends Iran into some legends from my childhooduh that uh and we got to bet the Derbytogether uh thanks to a good friend Mikeso much uh put me on Mage in the eighthonce Forte was scratched and and Magecoming home was uh was just an absolutepleasure to watch great great great racegreat event Hospitality in Kentucky wasamazingum the way that you know the the jobthat they do putting on that event isjust superlativeum Pat tip to Nick luck as well forputting us on the winner and the 14 andthe Kentucky Oaks that went off in likethe 12th 14 to 1 range I forget what itfinally closed at but yeah Mage cominghome at 15-1 was amazing unbelievableunbelievably fun raceum being their boots on the groundafforded us the news that Forte mightnot go early so we got to get ahead ofthat which was a pretty prettyprofitable profitable as well but sofrom a handicapping perspective was Magethe best horse in the field yes in myopinionum he was definitely the among thelightest racist horses so there wasn't alot known about how high his ceiling wasbut his Florida Derby was eye-openingwhere he almost took down Forte uh eventhough he had one of the most miserablestarts to erase ever seen a racehorsehave that comes with an experience nowthat Mage has kind of got his bootsunder him uh for lack of a better word Ithink he's going to be the horse to beclearly at the Preaknessum and then uh you know if everythingbreaks correctly we'll get anotherdecent bet on uh on Mage at thePreakness uh and then hopefully he goesoff as a prohibitive favorite for theBelmont in the hopes of winning theTriple Crown and we can come for himwith your boy tapatrice becausetapatrice needed about another quartermile and I think he was going to winthis race he was building up themomentum coming down the home stretch Ithink in a smaller field I think withthe longer with a a longer race I thinkTrice is the horse to beat so uh youknow crossing my fingers at the rest ofthe Triple Crown plays Mage gets thesecond one done uh and then we can comefor come from with tapatrice in theBelmont yeah I gotta say there's nobetter feeling than being on a winner atone of these massive events and beingthere in person I think my favoritesporting memory is being at the SuperBowl two years ago with my cubic carticket being in so far uh with a friendwho'd flown over from Australia uh anduh and getting that home uh has uh hecatches the touchdown in the rightcorner I'll never forget that but gladyou're able to get that one home let'stry to get some others home let's startwith Nick's heat uh pivoting to theassociation heat four and a half Pointfavorites tonight total or lowly two 006uh where are you out on this series atthe moment uh I am pretty much assumingthat the heat are going to be inprobably the first team to advance tothe Conference Finals amazingly uh wouldhave thought that the Celtics cominginto that series were live to sweep theSixers not to be that's not too tooamazingly I would have thought the uhthe Nuggets could sweep the Suns that'snow 2-2 improbably uh and yeah here weare with the heat potentially taking a3-1 lead back to the Gardenum four and a half Point favorites seemsfair to me uh I think this game I reallydon't know what the heat are going to beable to do to defend the nixer I don'tknow what the Knicks are going to beable to to do to defend the heat betterthe heat are going to get into the youknow the low 100s mid 100s here the nextneed to find some offense and so uh I dorealistically think they have to come upwith some they just have to give up someuh defensive strategy here get some moreoffense on the court in some way ifyou're not not getting into if you'renot getting 100 points in this gameyou're not winning so uh I think theover 207 and a half is the way to attackthis assuming that the Knicks find somesemblance of offense I still think theyprobably lose the game but uh uh to me207 and a half looks a little lowconsidering Knicks have their backsagainst the wall I think if this getsinto a situation where we have say fourminutes left to go and the Heat have anykind of meaningful lead this is going toturn into a you know a free throw Festuh Knicks can't you know they theyrealistically can't lose this game andexpect to have any hope in this seriesso you're going to see them uh do alittle bit of a kitchen sink here soover 207 and a half is the best bet Imake a strong enough case for you to getinvolved thereyeah and total's ticking up uh moved upone and a half points uh in the past fewhours I think the thing with this thisseriesum that's maybe not being focused onenough is that Brunson Randall quicklyand Grimes are all playing injured uhand Brunson doesn't have much lift atall Randall I don't think would beplaying if this was the regular seasonquickly I'm not sure if he's ever goingto play tonight and he was fading out ofthe rotation a bit but they played himmore in game three and he's still one oftheir better players certainly and thenGrimes was huge for them down at the endof the season I don't think he would beplaying either with his shoulder if thisis the regular season so just doesn'tseem like they just don't have enoughJimmy came back he didn't quite look asexplosive as he was pre-injury but hestill looked plenty good enough for themto win this series comfortably and Imean this Heat team is it's just bizarreI don't understand it I don't understandhow they were one shot away from thefinals last year I don't understand howit looks like they might go through thefirst two rounds of the playoff is goingeight and two as underdogs in bothseries which is insane but I think youjust have to to treat them as prettymuch the team that they were last yearwhen they were a one seed and they wereone shot awayum from making the finals and we'll talkabout some some Futures but I mean Tylerhero is going to be back soon as welllike you'll be back if they make theEastern Conference Finals so all of asudden this team which I thought wasgoing to get swept by Milwaukee is sliveto make the finals and win the titlewhich is insaneum that's where we are and that's howgood SPO and Jimmy have been uh and whenthey can keep these guys on the courtlike love and struce and Robinson whoaren't getting hunted on switches byguys like Tatum and brown which I thinkwould be a problem in the next round ifthat's the match up those guys can stayon the court then this Heat teamum is pretty solid so I think that theyare going to win this game tonight Ithink they will win the series I thinkthe best the best way to bet this seriesis betting the heat to win 4-1 at plusthreepretty quickly uh just with all of knownpun intended but yeahBronson and Randall and Grimes uh if youthink about just massing out the pricesyou have to think that for that not tobe a bet you have to think that the heatare bigger than plus 160 money line dogsin game five if they win tonight which Ijust don't think that's the case I thinkthere's more scope for that to be plus130 to plus 140 if they win tonight souh I think that's about what do youthink yeah I I hadn't really consideredtaking on that Avenue but I stronglyagree with youumand I yeah I mean we're reliving thebubble I can't believe it but the heatare just finding incredible ways to beuh to to you know survive in advancehereum only a thought or question I have foryouumquickly has been pretty poor the entireplayoffs really like uh we haven't youknow for whatever it's worth his youknow the the the lights being on are notserving him well he's playing very tightI think he was what two of eight fromthree uh in in game threeum is there any chance that you know himnot being being less involved and youknow some surprise bench player uh comesin and just gives them a little bit ofan offensive boost in this game or doyou think realistically the heat I meanthe Knicks just to kind of roll over andcall it a series so much like myself Ithink Emanuel is reeling from uh losingsix-man at theater Malcolm Brogdenum it's just after that it's still beendownhill uh for IQ yeah I don't knowwhat's wrong with him I mean he's hadmultiple games in the playoffs resumehad a shot in game two tips just said noI'm not doing this anymore and playedhim nine minutes I think so he's notright and now with the ankle there's notmuch scope for him to get better theissue is there's just no one else on theteam like this is why authorities shouldhave won six man of the year is thathe's hugely important to the Knicks andif he's not right like he was theirthird or fourth best player in theregular season I think uh and the factthat he's just giving them nothing andis probably likely to give them nothinggoing forward with the injury now I meanthen you're leaning on RJ Barrett andand I just think that's a good recipeand then you're landing on injuredBronson injured Randall I mean Randalllooks fine athletically I just don'tthink he's playing that well uh and Ithink the heat made a really importantadjustment in game three where theystopped putting Jimmy on Brunson and putJimmy on RJ Barrett and I just thoughtRJ out like goodbye to your drive gameRJ turned it over on the firstpossession that he got it against Jimmyuh the attorney R.J Baron into a jumpshooter now because Brunson Brunson justdoesn't have any explosion off his anklewhere he can't beat Gabe Vincent like heif you can't beat Gabe Vincent then theseries is done I would think so that'swhere I'm at the moment I don't thinkthat they can really do anything I thinkquickly if Quickly's done uh then it'sgoing to be more Deuce McBride you tryand play Grimes more you lean moreheavily on RJ and hard on offensethere's just not much there so I thinkthe heat should take care of this oneall right before we get to WarriorsLakers a reminder to download theRotoworld app to receive breaking playernews all season long so they hadcompetition by favoriting players onyour roster get the latest injuryupdates player news and much moredelivered right to your phone it'savailable in the app store todayall right Warriors Lakers I don't Idon't understand this series at all uhwe were in a group thread uh the nightof game three and you you made the thecorrect comment that uh Midway throughthe second quarter or the start of itjust seemed like the leggings were justcompletely done and then 10 minuteslater I think like tomorrow iscompletely done and then it's and thenthat's how it held the rest of the gamethe I just I don't know how to projectthese games going forward because itfeels like if the Lakers if LeBron andA.D played with as much energy andintensity as they did in games one andthree then the Lakers are probably goingto win these games but I just don't knowif that's going to be there not tonightand what version of those guys can showup let alone will so I mean what do youmake of this oneI had some Lakers in game one I had someLakers in game three so I feel like Ihad a decent read on sort of the fabricof this seriesum but I'm still tilted about that gamethree total the second half was 116 anda halfum the entire last five minutes waslayup line for reasons that I can'tpossibly wrap my head around why youwould be playing a fast pace let's justlet's get our layups in guys uhespecially the one within 10 seconds asthey basically were like okay we'rerunning out on the clock okay here weare too oh actually I'm gonna go run andget a two-point basket that took it to117 or something like that so losing thesecond half under by The Hook wasabsolutely tilting on Saturday night uhthe um under I think is the way to gohereumI realistically am still waiting for uhthings to kind of settle a little bit inthe series in terms of paceum we've seen specific quarters wherethe defensive intensity from both teamswas just completely lackingum particularly first and secondquarters of these games and uh this is asort of game and set up here with goldenstate a little bit of a back against thewall where they can't really afford tolet the Lakers get going offensivelyum the moment you mentioned about inthat second quarter where it looked likethe Lakers were absolutely cooked youcould get you were getting a trulynegative defensive performance out of uhMr Austin Reeves like it really lookedlike the warriors were going to be ableto just repeat repeat there's he we'regonna play this guy off the floor hecan't be on the floor like we've we'vesolved him he's done and then you blinkand it's like they went completely awayfrom that strategy and never really eventried to get it back as they were tryingto come back in that third quarter so Idon't understand the coaching decisionsthat were made in game three I think theWarriors come out with a Little BitStronger defensive approach here I wouldexpect you see more of the you know twobig lineup against the Lakers and justuh you know they they hope that you getbad Anthony Davis tonightum I have the sense this turns into arock fight late uh and that we grind thelast uh you know six minutes of thisgame uh down to the wire and uhultimately will probably come down tothe same sort of spirit of game fourbetween Warriors Celtics last year inthe finals this is the same basic kindof situational setup right where uh youknow the Celtics were up to one if theycan close out that fourth quarter ingame four they win the series I feelthat way about the Lakers in this gamein this series as well right LeBron'sgonna have to at some point put the teamon his shoulders late in this game andif he can get the win then the Warriorsare done if he if if somehow Steph pullsoff the masterful fourth quarter thenthe Warriors are back in it it maybeshould be meaningful favors to win theseries so I don't think it's hyperboleto say that this is the pivot point ofthe entire series and for those reasonsuh a slower paced fourth quarter uh youknow an inefficient offensive fourthquarter uh seem like realistic outcomesto me so biggest bet for me on the boardis under 227 in this oneum and I'm gonna go back to the wallwith the second half under two assumingthat we see uh you know a relativelyclose game yeah I think the two bigadjustments in this series and it'sfunny like every every series theadjustments go this way where coachesprogressively they go smaller and leanmore into shootingum generally in series as they evolveand the Warriors starting to MichaelGreen in place of Looney did that ingame two and then the Lakers basicallyplaying more Lonnie Walker at theexpense of Jared Vanderbilt did that ingame three and I think I mean that makessense to me that like the Lakers theyjust needed more offense and then yourely on Anthony Davis to be Superman ondefense to cover up for Lonnie Walkerand Annie did that Davis is the weirdestplayer in the league where he hevacillates from I think he has thehighest ceiling in an individual game ofmaybe any player in the league justbecause of what he can do defensively inaddition to obviously being an excellentoffensive player as well and then he hasgames where he just looks like the 22ndbest player in the league likeconsistently I just don't understand itlargely to do with health and the factthat you know he's not a ball handler soit's easier for him to fade out but Imean he was that's the best 25-pointgame I've ever seen anyone play hewrecked that game by himself uh andwe'll talk about some Western Conferenceand finals MVP stuffum at the end of the show but I meanhe's the key to the whole series like ifthey get that Davis every game then theLakers are going to win this series infive or six and if they don't then it'sprobably going to go seven uh so that'swhat it hinges upon but uh I think theunder is the right play yeah the uh theAnthony Davis in game two 33 minutes hewas a minus 22. he got to the free throwline one time it was passive he wasuninvolved he looked uninterested andyou know he was useless on defense inthat game he comes back out for gamethree in 33 minutes he was a plus 28.how you can have those two performancesback to back juxtaposed like that isabsolutely impossible for me to wrap myhead around so uh you know the the ifit's if it's literally just he can't doit on an everyday basis and he has tokind of uh you know kind of take a astep backwards today and let LeBron bethe guy to carry the team then I won'tbe surprised I kind of get the sensethat that's what their hope and theirintention is going to be that this issort of the you know LeBron leaves itall on the floor tonight uh and thatthey get the win they win the series andthey're going to the Western ConferenceFinals yeah I mean the series effects inthis series and also the Denver PhoenixSeries in terms of how the lines aremoving are insane frankly uh I mean theDenver Phoenix one game three closed thePhoenix minus four and then game fourclose pick I just I can't I can't getthere I understand that you know withthe series context and with motivationand that reflects in rotations where youknow if a team is down O2 at home likeBooker and Durant they were always goingto play like 45 minutes or whatever towin the series and that's a lever thatperhaps the team that is leading to Iwon't go to but at the same time for itto swing Four Points uh it's justcompletely insane to meum there were similar not quite to thesame extent but game one two and GoldenState Lakers also was a pretty big moveso yeah I I don't really know how to howto price that in I can't don't think itcould be worth four points but it's justlargely a guessing game aroundmotivationum but with this game you would thinkthat the lake is at home are going to beplenty motivated to go up 3-1 and thinkdown for both teams but yeah we'll see II really have no read on either of thoseteams either of these teams the Warriorsthey go from looking like the the teamthat won the title last year relativelycomfortably to looking like yeah a teamthat weren't whether you're at 44 and 38like they look like that kind of Teamall the time as well so I don't reallyunderstand it but yeah I would just kindof close if the pattern holds you'regonna watch this game and we're going tocome out of it saying how in the worlddid the Warriors not win that game likethat's kind of the way that the the youknow the spirit of the way theseplayoffs are playing out yeah well ifthe Warriors lose tonight then game fiveis going to be like Warriors minus sevenum it declares how this goes seeminglywith motivation back and forth yeah andyou can probably lay 20 and feelcomfortable yeah exactly all rightbefore we get into some MVP chat areminder every season is draft seasonget your Rotoworld draft guide bundletoday and dominate your footballbaseball and basketball drafts packedwith profiles rankings projections ordertoday and get all three Rotoworld draftguides for the price of two plus usepromo code Barry and save an extra 20 atcheckoutall right and close out with a littlegame uh around Conference Finals MVPprices it's uh the game is called whenwould you get involved at what pricepoint would you back these guys to winMVP and the first one is Jimmy Butler atplus 500 between Eastern ConferenceFinals MVP and I think the way to phrasethis one as well uh playing another gamewhich I'm inventing now is is it morelikely that another Heat player wins MVPaside from Jimmy Butler or is it morelikely that Jimmy Butler wins MVP in alosing and losing it yeah the second thesecond agreethey're Equity basically yeah I don'tthink it'll happen that the losingplayer will win a uh an NBA awardanytime soon uh it could I mean it'shappened but it was like the 60s lasttime we started this happen Jerry Westuh but uh yeah it's absolutely thesecond uh if you like the heat to winthe Eastern Conference then you shouldbe you should love Jimmy Butler fivefive to oneyep I I agree with that I think that'sthe way to bet it same with finals MVPyeah it feels longer than their seriesprice or their finals price then justback Butler uh plus 500 it's not superrapid sizing I mean they're going to berelatively long in the next seriesthough Philadelphia winning game fourmakes that a little bit more of anattractive proposition because theycould certainly more likely to beat thesixes than they are the Celtics um butplus 500 I'd probably want closer toplus 600 to actually back that uh Joelembiid who uh did not cover himself inglorious today Drew he no he lookedcompletely rattled uh in that fourthquarter against Al Horford could you usethat uh performance in the last week ofthe regular season uh to get the yanisMVP bets home uh stonewalling and beadbut he's plus 440 to win EasternConference Finals MVP uh what pricewould you need to back MB I wouldconsider it at 440 to 1.oh plus 440. oh no no thank you no thankyou no realistically uh his uh his shareof MVP equity for the Sixers has gonethat that that stock has tanked it istanked this is now a very very splitum kind of conversation about who iscarrying this team right now between himand James Harden James Harden hasclearly been the better player in thisseries and honestly if you're telling meembiid's gonna miraculously heal hisknee between now and when we get to thefinals not buying it I think he'spotentially Gonna Miss more games Ithink he could potentially continue tolook uh like he just does not have theuh the fire to fight through some ofthese series considering how hard it isso I would need to get somewhere in the10 to 1 price to get involved with Joelembiid as my Eastern Conference MVP Ithink plus 440 is absurd yeah I'm notquite a ten to one but yeah it'sdefinitely a lot more fractured I meanbefore the playoffs you would havethought that mbade was not quite JimmyButler on the heat levels of equity butnot that far off to be honest like morethan 90 and now that's not the case Ithink another thing uh not to disrespectuh Jimmy and the the hate but there is achance that could be a shorter seriesjust because they're going to be if thesixes if they make it to the EasternConference Finals are going to be prettybig favorites and you have a shorterseries that throws up more variance andmore chance for an underdogum to win like for instance if thefinals were sixes nuggets the chances ofTyrese Maxi winning Finals MVP are closeto nothing but if it's against the Heator the Knicks in an Eastern ConferenceFinals match up then a bit more scopefor that to be a shorter series uh andguys like that are a little bit morelikely but I agree plus 440 not superappetizing on Joelle Stephen Currypivoting to the Western Conference he'splus 480um to win MVP on that side what pricewould you need there I would need closerto eight to one to bit bed Curry andthat's because I mean do the math for meand on the back of the envelope forgetting out of this Laker series andthen defeating the Nuggets of the Sunsit's good it's close to eight to oneI mean they're what round plus 175 fairto get out of this one plus set 175 plus200 and then I mean there's I don't Idon't know what the series price isgoing to be in the next round becausethere's so much still up in the airwe've got Phoenix Denver games movingaround four points game to game uh andChris Paul's health is a big questionmark like the Warriors could be favoredpotentially over the Sun so they couldalso be clearly underdogs I think theywill be underdogs against Denverum just based on everything that'stranspired but again I mean Curry ispretty close to 100 of Golden State'sEquity particularly as it seems prettyunlikely that it would be a short Seriesin the Western Conference Finals like asweep uh so there's just no one elselike the team is just entirely Stephwhat's with John Paul Klay Thompson isgoing to win MVP I just don't think it'sviable so uh yeah plus 480 is not againsuper appetizing but I think that thatCurry is pretty much all of their Equityall right last one before we close outuh Devin Booker is plus 700 for WesternConference Finals MVP now he's the sameprice as Durant uh that wasn't the casethey weren't getting the same level ofequity even a day ago I think this isright I think it's pretty much 50 50between these two guys I might evenslightly lean Booker now just becausethe offense runs so much more throughhim I think that as well if it was deadeven between those two then Booker wouldget the bump from voters just becausehe's been the better guy in the playoffshe's been you know he's the he's thePhoenix Suns right nowum and he's been the guy for a few yearsnow so I don't mind that a plus 700 Ithink it becomes a question of how muchdo you actually believe in the sonsand that really dictates this because Ithink that he is probably slightly morethan 50 of their MVP Equityum but what do you think of seven to oneyeah I am I've been struggling with thisall day I need I would need a biggerprice than seven to one I would neednine to one ish because I'm only atabout 40 45 equity for Durant and Bookeruh in in that kind of Western ConferenceFinal setupumweirdly it in my opinion in my opinionat least it matters much more theiropponent is like that market 50 50 ifyou want to call it that is fine betweenDuran and Booker now but once you knowwho their opponent is I do think itshifts pretty aggressivelyum andI'm I still believe in the Nugget so Ithink it's a dead bed anyway yeah Ibelieve in the Nuggets too late iswavering a little bitLandry and Shaman's pliable and offenseand he's a good offensive playerum but that's a little bit of a concernbut you have to think that going backhome let's assume that Nicola jokic isgoing to play uh in game five which Ithink is a fairly safe assumption Iagree uh so yeah I mean the nuggets aregoing to be five five and a halfpotentially even six point favorites inthat one uh I would think so I stillbelieve in the Nuggets but certainlybelieve in the more uh before DevinBooker missed what do they miss eightshots in two gamesshots there's a uh there's a whiff of uhSun's uh Mavericks from last year withthe Suns playing the Mavericks role inBooker playing the Luca role yeah Idon't love that you know what you cankind of see it though right a little bitit all reminds me of it reminds me ofthis is a bit of a deep cut but I Ithink the Spurs played the thunder in2014 the year that the Spurs won andbeat the heat and that was Spurs go upto our uh Sergey Barker was injured itwas kind of like the Chris Paul I guessin this kind of coral area and then yeahunder uh roll them in games three andfour goes 2-2 back it's like the biggestgame of the season game fives the SanAntonio team going back to the finalsand then they blow Oklahoma City out bylike 30 and then they win game six inovertime after I think Tony Parker gotinjured uh so yeah I think that I thinkthat this series is going to go the sameway where the nuggets should roll ingame five and then maybe they eke outgame six or they win game seven but yeahcertainly Booker and Duran are justterrifying so certainly can't dismissPhoenix but uh I think that I think thatthe nuggets should pull it out anywayfingers crossed right don't forget tocheck out nbcsportsedge.com for moreinformation to help you with your wagesthanks everyone watching on the NBCSports YouTube channel and if you'relistening to us in podcast form don'tforget to rate and subscribewe'll be back tomorrow